The starting pistol is about to be fired on the 2012 American Presidential election campaign. The people of Iowa have the opportunity to pass their judgment on the potential GOP nominees; which has been a tad tedious.
Yes, there has been a bit of drama. Herman Cain has had to suspend his campaign due to a slew of sexual allegations from a number of women, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gringrich and now Rick Santorum have led the charge against everyone’s least favourite frontrunner Mitt Romney, yet the former pair have fallen away as of late.
But this season of campaigning just doesn’t have the magic of 2008. The race lacks the spark of a Clinton or the inspiration of an Obama which is a sign of the times. The economy will be the central issue of the campaign and the GOP has had very little constructive to say about it. President Obama has set out a clear path for withdrawal of American combat forces in Afghanistan and troops have already departed from Iraq. Bin Laden has been killed and the American government exhibited constraint in its actions vis-a-vis Libya. It is true that healthcare remains controversial. Liberals are disappointed and conservatives furious. His personal approval ratings remain stubbornly low, hovering below the 50% mark.
Despite all that, the poor quality of candidate in the Republican field is testament to the strength of Obama’s re-election prospects. There were many who could have thrown their hat in the ring. Every day another name is mentioned, whether it be Chris Christie the Governor of New Jersey or Marco Rubio, the charismatic Hispanic Florida Senator. Yet they all remain silent, laying the ground for a shot at the nomination in 2016 when a Republican victory is more likely.
So whilst the campaign has been tedious the Iowa caucus will be most intriguing. My feeling is that Romney will scrap home with the maverick Ron Paul trailing in second. Bachmann and Rick Perry will perform poorly and withdraw within weeks. Santorum will finish a respectable third but his momentum will fall away as his lack of organisation across other states starts to tell.
Ultimately, Mitt Romney will be crowned the GOP candidate to face Obama in 2012. It is at that point that the election campaign starts to become interesting.
[...] The GOP and Iowa Caucus: A British perspective [...]