The story of the night to emerge from Iowa was Rick Santorum’s strong second placed finish. I certainly didn’t expect that, having predicted that Ron Paul would push Mitt Romney to the wire, finish a close second trailed by Santorum in third. So the pundits have it that the big winner of the Iowa caucus is Santorum.
Being the young contrarian I am, I’d like to disagree with the narrative emanating from Fox News and others. The big winner of the night was President Obama. For the following reasons:
1. The result ensures that the GOP race will be a contest rather than a coronation for Romney. This can only be good for Obama as we’ll see a lot more attack ads directed at participants in the primary contest as opposed to the President. For a flavour of things to come, take a look at this. The more grisly the contest gets, the better for Obama.
2. Santorum is a religious bigot, who has pandered to the most unsavoury elements of the Tea Party wing of the Republican party. His views on abortion, gay rights and religious education are something to behold. The longer he is given the spotlight, the better as this can only serve to shed light on the GOP’s extremist element, damaging Mr Romney in the process. Romney will increasingly have to pander to this wing of the GOP as he tries to assert his conservative credentials. Win win for Obama who can attack this extremist nonsense in order to profit from Independent support in November. Obama is already cultivating this narrative.
3. The longer this contest last, the less time the GOP has to prepare its electoral machine for November, as it fragments behind different, bickering candidates. Obama’s ‘shadow’ campaign in Iowa has been dubbed as the best organised of the primary by the New York Times despite the money that was pumped in by Republican candidates and the President’s unopposed nomination. Obama has been afforded extra time to organise before, most likely, Romney has the chance to rally the GOP machinery in its totality. This can only enhance Obama’s chances of victory in 2012.
It is for those reasons that Obama will be smiling today. This should all come with a very big caveat though. If Obama’s campaign indulges in complacency for a single moment, the GOP will capitalise. Political operators on America’s political Right have a reputation for ruthlessness. If they catch a whiff of complacency, Obama will be punished.
So Obama must continue to guard against complacency and maintain an effective campaigning network a la Iowa, as the GOP juggernaut chunters across the America.
